The Word of the Day: "September Training"

Last season, I invented a new vocabulary word - "September Training". I described it here last August.

Let me explain it again.

September Training is a combination of Spring Training, when teams use meaningless (exhibition) games to evaluate their player pool, and September callups, when the rosters expand beyond the 24 25 players allowed. It's the start of looking towards the new season with some younger players (I'll leave Omar's quote out of it for now).

This year's examples are Jenrry Mejia (as a starter), Fernando Martinez (if he's healthy), and Lucas Duda (and probably some others later on).


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2010: A Mets Odyssey

No time in my day to comment on what was written (maybe later), but there is a good recap of the 2010 Mets season from the point of view of their off-field problems, courtesy of ESPN's Adam Rubin, which you can read here. Be sure to read his follow up article tomorrow on the 2011 Mets. Get your season ticket deposits in soon!


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Oh this can't be good

According to MetsBlog.com, the Mets' troubled closer (TKO-Rod, K-Fraud, or simply K-Rod) tore a ligament in his thumb during an altercation last Wednesday night, surgery has been recommended, and he would then be out for the remainder of the season.

I guess this is actually now evidence in the assault case against him. But maybe, just maybe, the Mets can use this to cut ties with him after the season (and after his trial). He committed what I guess is considered a crime against another person, and at the same time, made himself physically unable to perform his job (aside from a possible prison term). Don't forget he's innocent until proven guilty. But he's committed acts that have hurt the team (remember they fired Tony Bernazard, K-Rod's old sparing partner, last year for what was essentially bad conduct). Now, voiding K-Rod's contract or suspending him without pay, cutting him, or other type of punishment against K-Rod (and placing him on the DL does not count) would need to be cleared by the MLBPA.

But if Freddy Coupon & Son really want to be cheap, they can open up a lot of room in their self-imposed salary cap (let's not argue on that point) by cutting ties with their troubled closer. It also shows that they're really paying attention and have some balls. So what if what they attempt to do gets blocked or goes into litigation. Don't be afraid. Just do it. Wake up. Just don't pin this on Adam Rubin like Omar Minaya did last year.


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Embarassing question

a new poll - vote here, on the "Polls" tab, or on facebook.





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The 4/6 Report - A .500 Season

I was thinking of what to write for the 4/6 Report (or 2/3 for those that don't know the math), so I decided to look back at first 3 1/6th of the season reports.

After 27 games, the Mets were 15-12, 1/2 game back.
After 54 games, the Mets were 27-27, 5 games back.
After 81 games, the Mets were 45-36, 3 games back.
And after 108 games, the Mets are 54-54, 7.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East and 8 games back in the Wild Card.

I was thinking how quickly they've fallen in the past 27 games since the half-way mark (3/6) when they were 9 games over .500 to where they are now at .500. But then I saw that 54 games ago, after 1/3 of the season (or 2/6), they were also .500. Just as much as they rose, the fell. Those last 54 games have been a bit of a roller coaster. These last 27 games have been the downward slope, with the Mets falling fast.

With various activities going on for me over the last 27 games, I can't say that I've seen much of this happen live. I was told that Carlos Beltran came back after the All-Star Break. I think that disrupted the rhythm of the lineup and outfield from what had been working well. Luis Castillo came back at some point, aging the lineup in front of our eyes. Jason Bay ran into a wall in Los Angeles (I think during a game), and getting on the airplane to come home, the injury became a concussion. OK, that helped balance things out in the outfield with Beltran and Pagan, although I think Pagan should be the CF over Beltran right now. Some of the "ace" starting pitchers have hit a wall.

But I think the team has lost focus. Jerry Manuel may be managing like he knows that he's a lame duck manager. Maybe that's not the case, and he's just bad at managing. But he's lost the players. And the players are starting to lose the fans. I joked when I came up with the moniker "DyHrdMET" in 1997 that I'm a die hard Mets fan, and I have died hard with the club over the years. Imagine what I've seen in 13 1/2 years since then. I see it again.

While I was in Florida for Spring Training back in March, I came up with the number 75 for my prediction for the number of Mets wins. For a while, I thought I was way off. I'm starting to wonder. I won't consider myself wrong until the Mets hit 80 wins or 90 losses. 21-33 over the last third of the season is probably too low for this club, but if they give up, you never know, but 26-28 isn't.


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Ollie or Takahashi?

Given how Takahashi has pitched in his last few outings for the Mets, and given how Oliver Perez has pitched in his last few rehab assignments, which would you rather have as the Number 5 starter, and why?

I've read that the Mets are going to allow Ollie to rejoin the team, but he will pitch out of the bullpen, instead of trying to make another rehab start or sending him down to the minor leagues. But I have to think that Ollie would be better than Takahashi right now in the rotation.

And who would be demoted to make room? Is there really someone pitching worse than Ollie and Taki right now?


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The 3/6th report - 81 down, 81 to go

What a roller-coaster ride it's been so far through the first 81 games. The Mets are 45-36, 3 games back of Atlanta, and leading the LA Dodgers for the Wild Card by 1/2 game. The numbers most curious to me are the home/road splits. The Mets are 28-12 at Shea Stadium Citi Field and 17-24 on the road. The winning percentages actually come out to nice fractions - 5/9 overall (.556 winning percentage) and 7/10 at home (.700), and on the road is not a nice fraction with a .416).

I still think the Mets true identity is a team that plays almost like a champion at home and can't find their way on the road. I have to think that at least one of two things accounts for this - Citi Field truly is a unique ballpark built for the Mets and the Mets are conditioned to win there and only there - and/or the manager of the Mets only knows how to manage the Mets in a "home" game and can't quite figure it out in a "road" game.

On to the players of the first half of the season. Coming into the season, I don't think most knew what to expect from the Mets 2 best starting pitchers - Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese - or the thought that those would be the 2 best starting pitchers. The Mets have a good crop of in-season callups from Buffalo as well - Ike Davis, Chris Carter, Ruben Tejada, R.A. Dickey - to go with the homegrown core of the team (Wright, Reyes, Pelfrey, Niese).

There's a few players from past years that seem to be "missing". Carlos Beltran, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo. I almost think that the Mets could do without at least 3 of these guys and bringing any one back would be a big disruption to something going well.

Let me ask a question in jest. The Mets are playing well in an 9 game home stretch. Name 2 things that can disrupt it. Answers - one of those "missing" players returns, or the homestand ends.

The biggest concerns for me for the 2nd half of the season are Johan Santana, the bullpen, and the return of the injured players. Yes, you heard me right. I'm concerned about Johan Santana. He hasn't recovered from his offseason surgery. He has the mentality of an ace, but doesn't have the physical abilities, at least this season, to back it up. The bullpen is weak and overused. The overuse is on Jerry Manuel's shoulders. Something's wrong with the Mets closer. Maybe he isn't being pitched enough, or in the right spots, but he's paid to get guys out and just isn't able to. This will be 2008 all over again when Jerry Manuel ran the bullpen into the ground and cost the Mets a playoff berth. And the aforementioned injured players, older, rusty, and/or overpaid, coming back could disrupt what the Mets already have. Think about where you, as a fan, would want those players inserted into the lineup and starting or bullpen rotations.

For the 2nd half, well, I think my March prediction of 75 wins might be a bit short, but I don't see 85 wins happening. I expect a deja vu of 2008 (which I admit is better than a deja vu of 2009), and I expect the Mets to miss the playoffs again.


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Can't close the door

My facebook news feed is lighting up with comparisons of K-Rod to Benitez. Fair comparisons at this point. I saw this one and remember telling a few people of it 2 months ago. It also reminds me of the 2008 Mets, where the bullpen made fans sick. In total fairness, blame for those comparisons should be split between the manager and his misuse of the 'pen and those pitchers.


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Stat of the Day

Through July 1, 2010, almost half way into the season...

the Mets have 20 saves, tied for 13th in the Majors.
Washington has 24 saves, tied for 3rd in the Majors.

the Mets have 44 wins and Washington has 35.

Let's do the math. 20 of 44 wins (45%) were saved for NY compared to 24 of 35 (68%) for the Nats. 9 more wins and 4 fewer saves for the Mets compared to Washington.

Make of it what you will...



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The Big Mid-Season Test

We're almost at MLB's mid-season point. A few more games to officially reach 81 played. And the Mets are facing their latest big test. 7 games on the road for a team that's 15-20 on the road, and that includes 6 straight wins on the last road trip against the 2 worst teams in the American League. Are the Mets a changed team, after the removal of both John Maine and Oliver Perez from the rotation last month, or are the Mets still the same team that wins a lot at home and loses a lot on the road?

These next 7 games, against 2 teams within their division that are also below them in the standings will show me what the 2010 Mets are all about. The Mets are 0-4 on the road against Florida (I know these 3 games are in San Juan, not the normal Florida road-trip the Mets usually enjoy with their Florida fan base) and 1-1 in Washington this year. These are teams they should beat (though the matchup against Strasburg should be interesting).

Personally, I think the trip to Baltimore and Cleveland was an anomaly. Had they played their normal .333 winning percentage on that part of the trip, the Mets would be .314 on the road (11-24 record) and 39-36 overall (.520 winning percentage), 4.5 games behind Atlanta in 3rd place.

But maybe they take 2 in San Juan and 3 in Washington and prove me wrong going into the half-way mark (Saturday's game is game #81). Then it could be a fun summer in New York. If not, we'll be hearing cries to overpay for Cliff Lee, fire Jerry Manuel, and rush Carlos Beltran back to the lineup.

2010 New York Mets, it's your pitch!


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The two-sixth report

The Mets have played 54 games in this 2010 baseball season. That is exactly 2/6ths of a regulation season.

The Mets are 27-27, 5 games back of Atlanta for first place in the NL East, currently in 4th place. They're also 4 full games back of San Diego for the Wild Card lead.

Going back to the 1/6th report, they had a semi-bad 27 game stretch, going 12-15 to balance out the 15-12 that came before it. The Mets are 19-9 at home, and 8-18 on the road. That's quite a difference. They're home for 6 games before going back on the road. I won't count over the entire schedule, but I think they play 81 games at home and 81 games away from it (unless you're the Phillies and Blue Jays). A month ago, I looked at who the Mets had played, thinking that they beat bad teams and lost to teams better than they are. 9 teams in the NL are better than the Mets, and 6 aren't. I don't know how much all that means.

It strikes me that this team does not have what it would take to realistically contend with other teams in their division. The pitching staff has been erratic. Guys in the bullpen who got off to great starts aren't pitching as well, and they're also getting overworked. The starting staff became better by subtraction when Oliver Perez was demoted to count his money in solitude and John Maine came up with an injury to get out of the rotation. The starting rotation as it stands now is enough to get by, but the way Jerry Manuel uses his bullpen leads me to think that we'll see flashbacks to the end of the 2008 season (also managed by Jerry Manuel) with the bullpen failing to hold leads, etc. It was that way in the Mets' 57th game, even after a stellar 8 innings from our first ace.

There isn't much of a bench. We have a good backup catcher (who expected me to say that 2 months ago). But beyond that, it doesn't seem very useful. Alex Cora is a rock stepping in on the infield, I don't think I've noticed Chris Carter lately, and there's a few guys just keeping the physical dugout bench from flying away. The starting 8 finally seems consistent. Some days they can't do squat, but they're all in it together, and other days they can all hit the ball.

If that part of the team can get back to its 2008 level, and Jerry Manuel can stop his over-reliance on the bullpen and push his starters more, then maybe, just maybe, we'll have some interest come September.

As far as cutting ties with anyone mid-season, I just don't see Jeff Wilpon paying anyone off to go away. That includes Oliver Perez, Jerry Manuel, Dan Warthen, and Omar Minaya. And that type of mindset in the higher up reaches of the team is going to ultimately hurt the club in both the short and long term.


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Jerry or Ollie?

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The Mets of Twenty-Ten

2008 was a season with some hope, lots of negativity (at least until it was cleared up after midnight one night), but it ended with the world crashing down on us. 2009 was a season in which it seemed there was hope, but it was just hopelessly bad. 2010 seems like a blend of the two. We don't have the injuries (at least not en masse like we did last year). There was lots of hope at the start of the season. The bullpen pitched well. We had a good streak at home. But it's all regressed into that blend of the past two seasons. I'm starting to feel the same type of negativity around the club (from the fans and what some in the media are writing) that we saw in 2008 (and that went on for a good couple of weeks for a move had to be made). I see the same lack-of-quality club we had a year ago (something that can't change over night).

Right now is a critical time in the Mets' 2010 season, and it's a critical time in the history of the franchise. They're playing the Yankees, a team that always seems to have our number (maybe not on the field, but in our collective heads). 3 losses here, which I can't rule out, for the last-place Mets, could really bury hopes for the 2010 season. It could show the collective pop culture that the Mets are losers (consider one or two good seasons out of 10, considering that 2007 and 2008 weren't good because of the way they lost). It could become a sequel to "The Worst Team Money Can Buy".

I've been saying for about a year now that the only way for the Mets to be on the right track is to clean house, remove the players and management that have had the stigma of losing over the past 5 seasons, and start fresh. It can't happen overnight. Remember that's basically what they needed to do after the original version of "The Worst Team Money Can Buy". They took a few years to rebuild into decency for the late '90s. They need to do it again.


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The one-sixth report

The Mets have played 27 games in this 2010 baseball season. That is exactly 1/6th of a regulation season.

The Mets are 15-12 , 1/2 game back of Philadelphia for first place in the NL East. They're also 1 full game back of San Francisco for the Wild Card lead. The Giants come to New York this weekend.

So far, the Mets have played Florida (13-13), Washington (14-12), Colorado (13-14), St. Louis (18-9), Chicago (13-14), Atlanta (11-15), Los Angeles (11-15), Philadelphia (15-11), and Cincinnati (13-14). Of the teams that the Mets took series from (all at home and all on the same homestand), they average 12-15. Of the teams that have taken series from the Mets, those teams average 15-12. And they're split with Cincinnati playing the rubber game this afternoon. The point with those numbers was to see that the Mets beat on 3 teams that are all sub-.500, while losing to 4 teams that are at or above .500. It's early, it doesn't say much.

Now onto the team itself.

Coming out of Spring Training, I said that the pitching scared me. What I didn't see coming was a bullpen overhaul. Only 2 spots were secure, 1 went to a former starting pitcher/injured player from last year's roster, and 4 spots belong to newcomers, while parts of last year's bullpen are down in AAA Buffalo. One deserving of that demotion ended up getting injured early on, and one new guy also was injured in the first month. It doesn't seem contagious though. Point being, the bullpen has received rave reviews this year. The pitchers that scared me are mostly in Buffalo.

The starting pitching has been getting through battles even if the team had lost more games than it seems. I also didn't expect Jon Niese to propel to the 3rd starter, and wasn't surprised to see Mike Pelfrey down at 4th. Pelfrey had been the ace up until Philadelphia on Saturday. I said that John Maine needed extended Spring Training to get things worked out. He ended up doing that with the big club, but maybe, just maybe, he's close to his older form. Santana has had too many outings where he was shaky or without his fastball. And Ollie Perez has been a bit better than expected. The starting pitching through 27 games has 9 wins and 7 loses. They're only averaging 5 1/2 innings per start (which is 5 innings and somewhere between 1 and 2 outs in the 6th). That's too few innings from your starting pitchers (148 1/3 overall). They also have an ERA of about 4.00, which is a bit too high. That's about 2 1/2 runs given up before getting pulled. It forces too much reliance on the bullpen to be good, for the bullpen to eat up lots of innings, and for the offense not to be anemic.

And the offense has been anemic at times. The only ones on the roster batting over .300 are 2 relief pitchers, each with a hit in 3 times at bat. Ike Davis is the closest at .295. Reyes got off to a slow start, but he had lots of cobwebs to shake. Wright and Barajas are your HR leaders, and that part is a sign of improvement over last year. But only 4 of 8 position players are averaging better than 1 hit in 4 at bats - Davis, Wright, Castillo, and Francoeur. That's not going to cut it. Bay, Pagan, and Reyes, all of whom you expect big things from, aren't delivering, and it's hurting the club.

Now, let me ask this. Are the Mets a good team that turned the corner when Ike Davis arrived, 2 days after the 20 inning game, and had a bad 3 games over the weekend in Philly and Cincy? Or are the Mets a bad or average team that had a great homestand against 3 clubs currently below .500, including sweeps of 2 teams that are each 4 games below the even mark? In 2008, I said that the Mets were a .500 club that also had one big winning streak not long after their manager was fired, and nothing more. And that was a team that broke our hearts making us think they were good, and contending, and blew it. I'm starting to think that the 2010 Mets are getting back to that 2008 level, and with overuse of the bullpen, I wonder if there won't be another collapse, especially if they continue to rely on them for almost half a game every night (20 inning games excluded).


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Ike Davis has been a breath of fresh air

Ike Davis is here! Ike Davis is here! It's only been 2 games. He's played well, not seeming like he's out of place, like some minor league callups can be and have been (which can change, so it's not really an indication of anything). He wears shaving cream well.

He's not the savior of the franchise. At least not now. I'm not expecting him to be one either. But he is a breath of fresh air for this club. He's a guy who basically was not part of the 2006 Playoff failure, the 2007 and 2008 bullpen collapses, and the 2009 injury-plagued season. None of that is in his head. Almost like turning the page.

Last night, Jose Reyes had a breakout game, something that maybe he can build on. That seems like another breath of fresh air. I saw the triple he hit to left, and SNY showed the 2 runners coming home. I didn't even realize that he was on his way to third. That's the dynamic Jose Reyes that we all know and love. I knew it was still there in him. It just had to take time to come out after the time missed in March, and all the time missed last season.

Mike Pelfrey has 3 wins and 1 save - leading the Mets in both. After his mental troubles last season, this is like another breath of fresh air.

With all this fresh air blowing into Queens, let's get a good breeze going here!


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Potpouri before a 75 win Mets season starts

I'm going with 75 wins for the Mets. That's my prediction. I also think that both Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya will last the season, but not much more. Feel free to start the debate.

In other items, I am NOT going to tomorrow's Open Workout. I saw enough of that in Port St. Lucie. I owe you a lot more pictures from my trip. Following this site on facebook may be a good way to see them first.

I am NOT going to Opening Day. I will have a post on Opening Day on Monday. I've taken enough vacation days lately with my Spring Training trip that I'm not going to take another one.

I am thinking of heading out to see the revamped Citi Field on Saturday and take my chances at the box office at 10:30am. I want to see the Mets HOF and Museum, and I want my 2010 Mets pocket schedules. I didn't get any with my recent online ticket order. I will be debuting my recently arrived new-for-2010 Gary Keith And Ron (and Kevin too) t-shirt.

I've also ordered my tickets and t-shirt for this year's Gary Keith And Ron Main Event. That's 6 months away, so you'll hear more about that later.


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Keith Olbermann's take on the 2010 Mets

This is an excerpt from hugh baseball fan Keith Olbermann's blog on MLB.com, Baseball Nerd in his series of forecasts around MLB for 2010.

All that can be said about NEW YORK is: Sigh. I love the people who run this club, from the ticket takers to the owners. But this year the wheels could fall off even worse - and farther - than last. I think Jason Bay is a legitimate power source, and I thought Jeff Francoeur a steal, but that begs the question of what the Mets now expect from the guy who is still their top offensive prospect, Fernando Martinez. If Bay, Beltran, and Francoeur are to be the outfield for awhile, why is Martinez still there? Plus, the silence about Beltran is ominous. The ominousness of Daniel Murphy's bat is silent. And there is nothing - nothing - dependable in any of the three categories of pitchers, except for Johan Santana, Pedro Feliciano, and Frankie Rodriguez, and the latter is just another closer now. It is absolutely plausible that by June 1 the only questions will be whether or not to give Ike Davis a taste of the majors, whether or not to start screwing up Jenrry Mejia the way the Yankees messed with Joba Chamberlain, and if some Japanese team will take Luis Castillo off their hands.

DIVISION PREDICTIONS: I'll take the long odds that the Braves' breaks fall the right way and Cox goes out with a winner in a tight race over the Phillies. The Marlins will hit a ton but waste the brilliance of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco by using 11 different fifth starters and half a dozen closers. The Mets will have their nightmare collapse and be wondering if they can unload not only Castillo, but maybe Beltran and Reyes, too. They will finish a few games ahead of the Nationals - but only a few.

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Something Blue

From MetsBLog.com comes the direction that we should all wear blue at Citi Field next season.

Next season, I’d like to see every Mets fan who attends Citi Field wearing a blue shirt… nothing but blue… wear a blue Mets jersey, where a generic blue t-shirt, a blue jacket, this Mets jacket, whatever… but make it blue… this way, Citi Field will get the splash of blue paint it is sorely missing.

That puts my black jersey, snow white jersey, and white pinstriped jersey to waste, but I will be wearing blue for the game on October 4 (after my GKR t-shirt on October 3).


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September Training

Earlier today, I invented a new vocabulary word, "September Training'. By now, you've all have a chance to memorize it and create flash cards.

Tonight is the unofficial start to September Training. Former minor league starting pitcher and until now-Major League relief pitcher Bobby Parnell gets the start. All indications are that this is an evaluation of his skill and talent in a starting pitcher role to see what they may or may not have for 2010.

This is a good thing. The 2009 team never had a chance (though lots of us want to think that they did), and with 1/4 of the season to go, the focus is off 2009. Injured vetrans are on the waiver wire-trading block. We're giving someone who really is still a prospect (even with almost 3/4 of this season in the bullpen) a chance to show what he has, with a complete focus on 2010.

This is what September Training is (just not with a September callup in the physical month of September). An evaluation of what you have in the farm system (or even misplaced on the roster) BEFORE starting to rebuild for next season. It makes that job that much easier, and this is a better evaluation than Spring Training is.

Come September, when the minor league seasons are over, we'll get a look at a few prospects filling out the 40 man roster, and we can see what these guys are all about. To create roster spots, some aging free agents-to-be veterans will be traded (before the post-season roster freeze on September 1), and some injured players will just be shut down for the season (Reyes? Beltran?).

Rebuilding is the right direction for the Mets. Out with the old, injured veterans, and in with the new, younger crop of talent. I just wish they'd go a different direction from Omar Minaya since it didn't quite work out they way they hoped with him over the past 4 years.

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