Showing posts with label 2011 mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 mets. Show all posts

Monday, September 5, 2011

Wake me up when September ends

I think I've reached the point in the season in which I can no longer make sense of the Mets. Actually, I think I passed that point a few weeks ago. I still think they will be a .500 team when it's all said and done...give or take only 1 or 2 games. But I've completely flip-flopped on an earlier assessment in which I likened this year's club to the 1997 team that was on its way up under a new regime. I no longer think that. I do, however, stand by my opinion (going on about 2 1/2 seasons now) that the Mets need to clean house and rebuild. I know I've said this before, but it means getting rid of anyone left over from the playoff bust of 2006, the collapses of 2007 and 2008, and the abysmal seasons of 2009, 2010, and 2011. Especially those with longer tenures with the Mets. Beltran was traded, as we expected he would be, and the team seemed to fall down. That shows me that there is no other clear leader on the club...definitely not David Wright. He needs to go. Jose Reyes is too injury-prone for a long-term deal. I wouldn't break the bank to re-sign him. I'm also thinking that a lot of prospects from the Mets farm system are turning into busts, or at least not living up to expectations. Pelfrey and Parnell are two that come to mind, who need to play very big roles on the Mets.

Whatever the case with how I would gut the team, Sandy Alderson is the GM and he and his staff will figure something out. I have faith in them, going to their first offseason after their first season (in some ways, I don't count last offseason when the first arrived from outside the organization). But it will take time. Even more key to the rebuilding of the Mets is the need for Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz and Jeff Wilpon to sell their entire collective holdings in the club. They are toxic owners and executives, even without their financial issues. The deal with David Einhorn fell through. I was hopeful that he would come rescue us, but somehow, I'm not surprised that the Wilpons were going to be stubborn about what they would give up in exchange for cheap cash.

At this point, just enjoy watching baseball for the sake of watching baseball because there's only a couple weeks of it left. And don't try to over-analyze it, because it will only frustrate whatever baseball we all have left. Let's wait until next year...again.


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Monday, July 25, 2011

Mets 2012 - Rejuvinated at 50

Someone, a follower but non-diehard fan, asked me last night if the Mets were going to re-sign Jose Reyes. I told him that I honestly didn't know. I could see it going either way. I hope they do, and he has the ability to be a large force of the rebuilt Mets, but at the same time, he has the ability to go down to leg injuries every year that cuts into what he provides to the club. This year's (so far) was minor, and this year, he's showed potential, but one has to wonder. Now, he's not at the point of it being a joke like Fernando Martinez. But it's been a few years since Jose played the entire season healthy. All of that, especially over the past few seasons, makes me wary of throwing lots of money (assuming the Mets can afford it) at Reyes for many many years (though he should still be in the "prime" of his career 5 years from now and on the edge of it 2 years later). Omar Minaya would throw the money at Reyes and lock him up, which is what a lot of the vocal fans want. I don't mean to insult those fans by comparing their desire to what a clown like Omar Minaya would do. But Sandy Alderson is different, and I just don't know what he's going to do. I've said before that the best ballpark for Jose Reyes is Citi Field because of its wide open space. I'm waiting for him to go for 4 bases (you know it's going to be a play where a typically slower runner would end up with a triple). But who knows how much money will talk to Reyes in the offseason and make him leave NY. Or worse, moving to the Bronx.

The other realization I had, and thanks to Steve Popper at the Bergen (NJ) Record and NorthJersey.com was that the expected trade of Carlos Beltran means the end of the "core" group of Mets from the Omar Minaya era. I had also never thought of Beltran, Reyes, and Wright as being the core. I guess they were. Pedro and Delgado were there too. Beltran, when healthy, was something special. When healthy! But my thought here is that these are the last days of Carlos Beltran as a New York Met.

Now, Beltran is having a great year. An All-Star Season in fact (I think so anyway...didn't watch anything related to the game). He's a veteran who has some control on a trade. Ultimately, that may prove to be a bad thing for either side. Beltran really really doesn't want to play in the American League because of the fear of the DH. Coming into this season, I was ready to concede that Beltran was best suited as a DH for the Mets (for the amount of time that such a thing exists), but he proved me wrong. As far as 2012 and beyond is concerned, having a DH position to fall back on may be good. NL teams may not offer him as many years because of his knees (since they don't have the DH as a fallback). But in the near-term, I don't think it matters where Beltran goes. I'm sure he really doesn't want to leave the Mets (though I am sure he's not in the Mets future plans), but it's also pretty clear that the Mets will trade him in the next few days (they haven't yet already, have they? I'm taking a long time to write this post). If he has a chance to win, and a team and guarantee that he will play 6 days a week in the outfield, it shouldn't matter which league it's in. I know there's a comfort zone in the NL. Maybe that can come in handy with a team in the World Series.

One note on K-Rod. I knew Francisco Rodriguez would be traded. I just didn't expect it to happen during the All-Star Game. Too bad he wasn't having an All-Star season (think about it. How often does a player get traded mid-game and NOT need to get pulled).

David Wright's back. Hey, that's a double-pun. Wright had a big weekend with the bat (I still think he's un-clutch, but I'll give him a week or so to let the excitment of returning from a 2 month absense wear off), but I've heard more talk about his bad throwing mechanics, something I started noticing in 2009. Those things are hid a lot better by a good defensive first baseman (like Ike Davis or Keith Hernandez) because people tend to forget the cases when he gets the out. Wright is signed through next year, and there are no trade rumors. But that won't stop me from advocating trading Wright. Like Beltran and Reyes, and even more-so, Wright has been the "face of the franchise" since his arrival in 2004. And what have the Mets done over that time? I won't remind you, but it wasn't what we all had hoped they would do. I think he needs to wear the captian's "C" on his jersey, or he needs to be traded to a team that won't put the pressure on him. It should happen in the offseason...before the rumors of next year's trade deadline start distracting him.

I'm starting to wonder about Johan Santana. I can only remember him pitching one complete season with the Mets, that being his first in 2008. Maybe it was the new ballpark. Maybe Omar Minaya got damaged goods (and he hasn't led us to winning anything, though in that first year, he came pretty damn close to getting that chance). I would like to see how he comes back from this latest recovery, because the pitching staff will be better with him than without him. But the pitching staff is getting very weak. Even Mike Pelfrey should be considered a treadeable pitcher instead of a number 2 guy.

It's just about time to completely rebuild the organization, something I've advocated since 2009. Both the major league team and the farm system (think about the "talent" down on the farm - the oft-injured Fernando Martinez, the not-quite-closer Bobby Parnell (who blew a save on Sunday in the 8th), who else am I missing - more misses that hits down there). But at the same time, it's time for the Mets to get younger with Reyes being the veteran leader of the Mets Kids Club. Something, maybe, to look forward to next year in 2012. Mets 2012 - Rejuvinated at 50!


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Monday, July 11, 2011

Predictions for the Second Half

Today, I look forward to the second "half" of the 2011 Mets season (of course, the All Star Game is the "half way mark" of a season even though it's about a week past the statistical half way point, but I digress)...

  1. The 2011 Mets, even with Jose Reyes coming back and going back to being his old self, even with David Wright and Ike Davis coming back in August, and even with Johan Santana coming back by the end of next month as well, do not make the playoffs. This team that's gone on a run since late April to finally break and stay over .500 is going to keep September exciting, we'll applaud them when they are eliminated by the Nationals at Citi Field on their great effort, the best we've seen in some 5 years in Flushing, but they aren't going to the playoffs. At least not under the current structure.
  2. I just mentioned that David Wright, Ike Davis, and Johan Santana will all come back during August. Wright probably early in the month (border-line July), Davis mid-month, and Santana late in the month. I think the team will suffer a lag when Wright comes back (what first baseman besides Ike Davis and Keith Hernandez can handle Wright's erratic throwing arm?) and go back below .500 for a bit. Ike Davis will breathe some life in the club and bring them back over when Davis hits one OVER the Shea Bridge. And Johan Santana finds his way back into the rotation very close to a time when the rosters could handle a 6-man rotation.
  3. Without consideration for the trade deadline, the current 2011 payroll-Mets will not reach the playoffs (that includes bringing back the DL'd players into the starting lineup). But they'll be so damn close that in a future year, it would be really hard to trade the All-Star Right Fielder (and comeback player of the club) and their flamethrowing closer. And in 2011 when those trades are made (thinking of the future of course), it will bring the team down a little bit. Under some managers, that could spell doom. Under Terry Collins, that will keep them a 2 or 3 games above .500. And after 2009 and 2010, finishing at .500 is an accomplishment.
Now I mention the trade deadline and future years because of a rumored expansion to the playoff structure as soon as next year that would bring more teams into the playoffs, and make more medicore teams think they're in playoff contention, and redefine what it means to be a buyer and what it means to be a seller at the trade deadline. Coming into the final game before the break, the Mets are 7.5 games out of the NL Wild Card. Add one more Wild Card team, the Mets are suddenly 2.5 games behind a 3-way tie (with 2 of those teams also being tied for a division lead). That certainly would change the direction a team may go at the trade deadline. I still stand by my prediction of 83 wins. Even with all that's coming back, and all that the Mets are going to send away, and with all that Terry Collins has done, they still finish the season playing golf in October feeling good about 83 wins. Leave a comment or drop me a line at DyHrdMET [at] gmail [dot] com. "Like" RememberingShea on Facebook (the function formerly known as "Becoming a Fan"). Become a Networked Blog

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Half Way Home

By my count, the Mets are 41-40 over the first half of the season. It's really on par with my pre-season prediction. But given how the idea of being above .500 is a very recent revelation in Mets-land, I think 41-40 is pretty darn good.

Jose Reyes really needs to be the starting shortstop at the All-Star Game. 121 hits over 78 games (remember he missed a few games and he leads the league in hits), 15 triples (almost double the next player), he's tied for the MLB lead in batting average, and 2nd in the majors in SB and runs.

The injuries to David Wright and Ike Davis have certainly changed the face of the team (and I still blame Wright for Davis's injury). It sounds like Wright will the first of the two to return to the lineup. But I think I've already said that I like 3/4 of the infield that we've seen for most of the past month and a half - Turner at 3B, Reyes at SS, and Tejada at 2B, with Davis at 1B.

And in the outfield, is may be possible that Jason Bay is finally breaking out. Or not. We'll have to see. But he certainly looked good hitting the Mets' first grand slam since 1986 (ok, in almost 23 months). Angel Pagan is looking good, and I like Jason Pridie as a 4th OF. But who would have expected Carlos Beltran to lead the Mets in both HR and RBI, be 2nd in ABs (behind Reyes), and the most surprising stat for the most surprising Met of the first 3 months ... Carlos Beltran leads the Mets in Games Played.

Remember that with all of that, the Mets are still just a .500 club. The offense can break out like it did for 4 games in Texas and Detroit, and then it can go dormant, like I think it will when the Mets get back to Citi Field. Some of the individual numbers may be sustained, but long stretches of winning won't be with this club. They're just not there yet.

And then there's pitching. I'm not sure I sorted the stats correctly. Chris Young (out for the season) leads the club in ERA. Mike O'Connor is second. And the best of the current 5 man rotation is Dillon Gee in 6th (3.32 ERA). On another note, Francisco Rodriguez leads the club in appearances (somewhat ironic because everyone is watching him with that mark of games played he has this year). 20 saves in 41 wins. I actually don't know if that's normal or not.

Looking over wins-losses, it seems somewhat backwards. The "ace" and last year's biggest (good) surprise are both 4-7 (that's Pelfrey and Dickey). Niese and Capuano are hovering around the .500 mark (14-13 combined). And Gee really is another one who deserves at least a look at the All Star Game. For as good as the starters have looked, remember, they're just a .500 club.

And in the bullpen, it's been a bit of trial and error, and a bit of sense of "these are our guys". I said back in March that I liked that it was a lot of new guys. Manny Acosta is a waste (highest ERA of the current 25 man roster). But other than that, I think the Mets have a good rythym in the 'pen. But those things usually don't last. And it certainly took a while to get to this point.

I think what I'm trying to say is that there's been some good (Reyes, Gee, Beltran, Izzy, Beato, both of whom I have yet to mention), some bad, or at least not-as-good (Dickey, Pelfrey, Willie Harris), some lineup changes due to injury (Pagan was out, Bay was out, Chris Young is gone, Wright and Davis have been out), and good finds (like Turner).

And not to mention the change in culture brought in by Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins. I know some Mets fans have been very critical of Collins, but I think every one has to say that Collins has made a difference in the clubhouse.

41 down, 41 to go. And I still stand by my prediction of 83 wins (which actually means a slightly better 2nd half than 1st half). As hard as it is to see making a move to give up on the season, I think there will be an offer by a real contender (which I do not consider the Mets to be) for either Beltran or K-Rod that's just too good to pass up.


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Sunday, June 12, 2011

Few and Far Between

I'm back with enough thoughts on the Mets to exceed the limit of a facebook status. Let me go over a few items.
  1. Justin Turner, Jose Reyes, and Dillon Gee need to be on the All-Star team. Reyes should be starting at SS for the National League. I think it's been a while since I said the Mets had 3 genuine All-Stars. Carlos Beltran is also worthy of at least being in the conversation as a reserve. I know it's somewhat of a popularity contest, and that most fans outside of New York have never heard of Turner or Gee, but these guys should at least be on the manager's radars for selecting reserves and pitchers. Gee has a shot at having 10 wins by the break, and remember, he didn't start the season in the majors and was out of the Mets rotation for a week or two. Lots of people could say that Turner has been keeping the Mets afloat while Wright and Davis have been out. More on him later. And what can I say about Reyes? He's such a dynamic player having a career year, leading the league in most offensive categories (except nose hair).
  2. There was a fan movement about 9 days ago to show the Mets management and ownership (and the media) that fans want Jose Reyes to stay a Met. I absolutely support that effort (short of bloggers who become martyrs aside). I really hope Fred Wilpon and his new best friend got the message. Looking at Reyes's stats, I truly believe Citi Field is the best place for him, and the Mets certainly need a guy like Reyes at the top of their lineup. 3 steps back if they let Reyes go or trade him, and 3 bases forward (and rather quickly and matter-of-factly) if they can lock him up.
  3. I really believe the Mets are better off without David Wright. Yes, you heard me right. Wright is wrong, at least for the Mets. And I blame Wright for Ike Davis's injury, but that's besides the point. I'm sure I've said this before, but if David Wright was the "face of the franchise" during these really bad years (from losing in the playoffs in 2006 through 2010), then what leadership has he provided? And I have to say, I like 3/4 of the Mets infield right now - Tejada at 2B, Reyes at SS, and Turner at 3B - and add back Ike Davis at 1B, and I like where this team is going. For Wright, this injury is giving the fans and management a chance to see what life without Wright can be like, and frankly, it's not so bad. It's even refreshing. And this injury is at least delaying the possible trade (or at least serious trade talk) involving Wright.
  4. I also like the idea of a Duda-Pagan-Pridie outfield. I'll let you figure out what that all means.
  5. I still do not consider the Mets a contender. A few weeks ago, I posted a thought on the facebook page for this blog that I saw a parallel to the 1997 Mets in this year's team (and I think this was after Wright and Davis were already down and out) - new management and a new direction, knowing it realistically will be a couple of years before it all pays off, and knowing that a few of the faces defining this year's club won't be around when it does pay off. I really do believe that Terry Collins has changed the tone in the Mets clubhouse. I think we heard that all the way back in Spring Training. He really was the right man for the job, despite what some people think about some of his on-field decisions. Maybe the Mets will live up to the phrase that I coined in 2009 - "Mets 2012. Rejuvinated at 50!"

And lastly, our thoughts are with Gary Carter as he begins to fight brain cancer. Go Kid!


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Sunday, May 15, 2011

Cleaning House and the fate of Jose Reyes

Let me start by saying that there is an fan event, details here on facebook, whose sole purpose is to show anyone watching (i.e. management, television, other fans) that Mets fans want Jose Reyes to be a Met for a long time to come. I support the cause, but since it's a Friday night, I probably won't be out in Queens for the game (it's Friday June 3, the 7:10pm game against Atlanta; and it's a schlep from NJ for a weeknight game). The event is being organized by one of the most die-hard Mets fans I've ever met, Donna Bauer. According to the facebook event page, meet the group outside the rotunda before the game (4:30 to 6pm) and on the Shea Bridge in the top of the 5th.

Now, a lot has been written and spoken lately - really all speculation - about an upcoming fire sale of the Mets roster. Let me say this...I fully support it. In some ways, it's just wrong that a pro sports team in a major league based in New York has to go through with a fire sale, but in the case of the Mets, I think it's necessary. Not so much for the sake of shrinking the payroll, but more for the sake of cutting away the losers wearing Mets uniforms, as well as other players that just aren't practically part of the future of the organization.

There's still a handfull of "core players" leftover from the Mets teams that suffered through a playoff collapse in 2006 (I still say that not scoring in the bottom of the 6th in Game 7 against the Cardinals was a downward turning point for this franchise), the divsion-leading collapses of 2007 and 2008, and the utter failure of a season in 2009. I would trade away the leader of the pack - David Wright - as well as free agent-to-be Carlos Beltran. I would look to cut Francisco Rodriguez, even though he's preformed pretty well this year. I'd even look to trade Mike Pelfrey.

But there's one name that I left off that list. I know he's been injured in the past, but when he's on, he's explosive. This type of dynamic player just doesn't come around that often. That is Jose Reyes. Lots of people schooled in what the Mets are thinking have speculated that Jose Reyes will not even finish this season as a member of the New York Mets. He's a free agent looking to make big money this offseason, and it's money that the Mets just don't seem to have.

But if the Mets are hoping to compete in the future, they need their long-time catalyst. So why does everyone want to save him and not David Wright (Wright isn't even a free agent this offseason)? Well, let me draw this picture for you for Reyes, as just one example of "why". Lots of people have said that Citi Field is just too big. I think for Reyes, it's too small. I've noticed him legging out triples with ease at Citi Field (the way others get doubles). I think if the ballpark were a little bit bigger, Reyes would actually be able to turn 3rd and try for 4 bases a few times a season. With this Mets offense, Reyes needs to find a way to score on his own because guys like David Wright just aren't bringing him in very much.

And that leads me to the loser fan-annointed leader of this club, David Wright. The thought process is simple with him. He was the clutch guy and face of the team for all these bad years. And the word clutch should be in quotes because he just isn't. Maybe he's had undisclosed injuries (and I'll excuse what happened after he was beaned in the head 2 years ago) that have affected his play (throwing and hitting). Heck, it's widely thought that he has one now (caused by hustle, so it's not all bad, but we had to learn it from the manager's speculation almost 2 weeks after the fact, and not from the player saying i'm banged up and I need a day off). With Wright, and I think I've said this before, I say that the Mets have played bad with him, so they can play bad without him.

The end result of all this -- I think the Mets will dance around the bottom of contention until one of two things happens:
  1. the Wilpons need money and have to start selling off players now (that would only work in the supposed case that another team takes on the salary for the remainder of the season, which I had kept hearing wasn't gonna happen). That goes along with a rumor I saw on facebook today about a Memorial Day sale in Flushing.
  2. the Trade Deadline approaches and Sandy Alderson takes a reality check that the Mets are just short of serious contention, and it's time to start making trades for the sake of getting young players and draft picks in return for free agents that you won't be signing in the offseason because there's a need for new blood and less money to be spent. Now I know that there is some compensation for some types of free agents not being re-signed (though I don't know all the rules, nor do I know who on the Mets fits into that bucket), but making trades is better. It's kind of like being an organ donor. Especially if it's to a team that can beat the Yankees or Phillies.
But for now, let's try and send a message to management that while purging and rebuilding is a necessary step in making the Mets into winners again, it's important to keep the fans in the stands (they're having enough trouble with that with the current team as it is and the stadium layed out the way it is), and a big step into doing that is to keep Jose Reyes around for a long time (and I don't mean until this August).

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Sunday, May 1, 2011

April in Metsville

I'm giving this another shot, after last year's 5/6th attempt at a 27 game report (if you noticed, I never did the final one). This time, I'm using the pages in the calendar to write my monthly report.

The bookkeeping - the Mets are 11-16 over 27 games in April, in last place in the NL East 7.5 games out of first, in 14th place in the entire National League, and 25th overall in the Majors.

Looking over the game-by-game results, short of 3 and 6 game winning streaks, it just looks downright awful. They've also been swept in 2 doubleheaders, which happened to be on consecutive playing dates. They looked a bit streaky in April. Well, they were. 1 loss and 2 wins were not part of streaks of at least 2 games. In other words, for most of the month, they won some in a row, then lost some in a row, then won some in a row, and so on.

In the winning streaks, they looked like a really good team, the one that we all think they're capable of being, especially in the 6 game streak after Jason Bay returned to the lineup. But they had a lot of losses where they looked like a team that wanted to be broken up and sold off in pieces. In some ways, this streaky team isn't much different from what we saw last year.

But there's a few things very different from last year. Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins. Collins' managing style is very different from that of Jerry Manual. But will it work with this group of players (mostly the same core from last year)? I'm not sure. But that's in part, the players' problem. And together, Collins and Alderson have held players accountable more than I remember any Mets Manager and GM in recent years. They did a good job of not losing players during Spring Training moving to the Opening Day roster because of various contract clauses, then dumped players who underperformed after the season started. I love it. It's a bold statement...even if it's for fringe players.

So what's the next move? Or does the team turn it on again when they get home and we put off this discussion for another week? It's possible that this team really isn't as talented as we've been sold to believe. If the team has a .500 or worse May, I think it will be time for serious thought about trading off "talented" players.


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Sunday, April 24, 2011

Writer's Block And Some Other Thoughts

I realized that I haven't written very much on the blog in the last 6 months, outside of some news pieces about the NY Sports Emmys, some sound bytes, and my Spring Training trip. At work, I had a busy few months that started right after the season ended (thank goodness it wasn't during the season) and ended right before Spring Training started. And frankly, there wasn't a whole lot to say that hadn't already been said.

I also think I've had a case of writer's block for some time. Facebook has sort of ruined me in that respect. If you don't follow my blog on facebook, please do so. I post a lot of smaller items (small enough to fit into a facebook status update) there, that just wouldn't work as well as full blog posts that follow my style of blogging, and I've found there is more interaction on facebook. Of course, I like comments and dialogue on the posts written here as well (and as always, thank you all for reading/following my writings). I just noticed that I had exactly half as many posts in 2010 as I had in 2009 when there was so much more original thoughts to speak. At first, I looked at this as a sort of therapy for following the Mets. It's helped, but I think I need a little more. I'm actually getting a little bit of inspiration by sitting in my Shea seats watching Billy Joel Live At Shea Stadium for the first time (buy the DVD, CD, and/or BluRay, and the documentary).

The Mets were utter failures last season. Changes in the GM's office and the Manager and coaching staff were made. I really didn't know enough about those new guys (and still don't) to write anything insightful. With this blog, I like to write some sort of unique-ish feature article and commentary. You may realize this, but I don't post news, game previews, or game recaps. I leave that to the professionals who have the inside scoop, and to other blogs. Anyway, there just wasn't anything to write about that hasn't already been said, either by me or by someone else.

All that being said, we're in a new era of Mets baseball. It's the 50th season, and the first time since 2005 that there is new leadership at the top two levels (the "top two" being one and two levels below the owner, where the ownership is a whole separate issue). I like the overall change in direction that the Mets have made. These changes should have been made during or after the 2009 season. But they weren't, and maybe it will work out for the better.

But I started saying this in 2009, and I was thinking it a lot in the first 3 weeks of this season -- the Mets need to clean house and rebuild. Get rid of anyone who was around for the playoff failure of 2006, the collapse of 2007, and the redux of 2008. Those players in my mind are tagged as "losers". Since they didn't clean house going into 2009, and 2009 utterly sucked, I'll go and add on players from the 2009 Mets to that list. I don't have an exact number of players (I'm not big on research like that), but it involves some real core players. They need to go. What was that line about Ralph Kiner?
On June 4, 1953, Kiner was sent to the Chicago Cubs as part of a ten-player trade. This was largely due to continued salary disputes with Pirate general manager Branch Rickey, who reportedly told Kiner, "We finished last with you, we can finish last without you."
from Wikipedia
The Mets haven't won, and have been labeled "losers" with the likes of David Wright and Carlos Beltran leading the team. Quite an endorsement, isn't it? Cut 'em. I'll admit, I haven't been high on David Wright for a couple of years now, but this is more than just him. I was throwing around the idea of packaging up Wright and Mike Pelfrey in a trade and I wasn't exactly shot down on that one.

Sandy Alderson started going in the right direction over the offseason, but he needs to make the big jump. And this has nothing to do with the money problems that the Mets face. Every time the Mets have come close to success in their 49 years, there has been a moment where it fell apart, and within a few years, it was a very low point. I wrote about it in 2009. Nothing was fixed until the team brought in a new regime and cleaned house. That's been a pattern for most of the team's lifespan.

Now, since I started mulling this part over in my head, Jason Bay returned to the lineup, his head seems to be clear, and the Mets look like a different team. 3 wins in a row now. I think the expression is "break up the Mets". Well, that's what I've been thinking. I don't think a 3 game winning streak (or however long it winds up being) changes anything in the long run. But I also have to ask the question if this is a .500 team (which is in the neighborhood of what I had predicted) that just had a bad week and things will even out, or is this a really bad team that's currently in a short hot streak. The 2008 team that suffered the franchise's second collapse in as many seasons was a .500 team that had a good stretch, not long after the manager was fired. This year's team had a good stretch after a long lost player returned from a new short-term injury from Spring Training.

Well, it's April, so I don't really know the answers. That's why they play the games.

But looking long term, the biggest factors are whether or not Sandy Alderson will listen to what I have written here (I doubt he reads my blog, or at least would have the message passed to him, and it's not like I'm sending this out to him, but maybe he has similar ideas), and how the ownership situation will play out. I wrote back in my lone post from January what I thought of the Madoff-related lawsuit and boldly said that within a year (of that point) that the Wilpon family will no longer be in control of the Mets. I even followed it up with another realization on the matter.

Since that post, where I speculated that they would have a hard time selling off 25% of the club (now that's up to 49%) without giving up some control, which has played out, we learned that the Mets needed a loan from MLB (and tried to get a second loan) during the offseason just to make ends meet. That's just scary, especially for a New York team. And the lawsuit, which really really should be on the owners personally and not on the team, hasn't even been settled/judged, so that's just a huge wildcard. And now the Dodgers are in an even worse situation than the Mets are. How ironic! MLB has even had to step in and assume control of the Dodgers. I'm sure if Bud Selig and Frank McCourt (the Dodgers co-owner) were buddy-buddy like Selig and Fred Wilpon are, maybe it would play out differently. Bud Selig needs to do the same thing with the Mets that he did with the Dodgers, and that is to appoint someone to oversee anything that goes on with the ballclub. Maybe that's what Sandy Alderson is doing in Flushing. And he needs to step up and force out owners who are bad for the game, such as the two mentioned here. Unfortuately, the Mets will have been run completely into dire financial straits before that happens.


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Monday, April 11, 2011

Mike Pelfrey

Before the game goes too far (1 inning down into Pelfrey's 3rd start as I write this), here's my quick take on Mike Pelfrey.

He's pitched poorly in 2 starts, but it's only been 2 starts. If I'm a fan in the stands or in my recliner, I'm on the verge of booing Big Pelf and saying he needs help or that we should trade him and get something good in return. But if I'm someone inside the clubhouse, I can see much more closely exactly what he needs without getting down on him. We as Mets fans need him to turn it around...let's hope someone close to him can see what's wrong and fix him. Maybe it's just some home cooking.


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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

83 Wins

83 games is all I think the New York Mets will win this year. It is an improvement from last season. Furthermore, I think the Mets will fool us into thinking they are in contention for the NL Wild Card but ultimately, they won't appear in the postseason.

Let's look at what they're retaining from last year. Well, the team colors are still the same. No changes there. The orange and blue accounts for about 20 wins right there. But seriously. Josh Thole, Ike Davis, David Wright, and Jose Reyes are back playing on the infield dirt. I think they make up most of the core of the ballclub, and I have no worries about them. Jason Bay will eventually be back in left field, and Angel Pagan is back in center field. Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, and Jon Niese are back in the starting rotation. Bobby Parnell and Francisco Rodriquez are back in the bullpen. These guys here are pretty solid, but it's not the entire club.

The problem is, at least for the position players, I didn't list 8 of them, and there are a few holes. Carlos Beltran is listed as the right fielder, having moved over from center field very early in Spring Training. But that's only on paper. Personally, I didn't think Carlos Beltran would start the season on the active roster, and I give him a 50/50 shot to even play 100 games. He's also not in the long term plans for the Mets. This is a place where the Mets need to consider the right fielder of the future (beyond Beltran) at a point now, and platoon him with Beltran when such a time comes. I'm just not sure who that actually is. In the old days, the GM would just buy a young right fielder to fill this whole, but this is a new era in the Mets and they're going to grow a new Right Fielder instead. And now Bay is injured. Oy Bay!

There is also a hole at second base. I can't remember the last time there was a real permanent second baseman on the Mets. I guess Castillo when he first came aboard. But they were smart in dumping Luis Castillo this year (so were the Phillies). He also wasn't in the Mets' long term plans, and the way I saw it, the Mets would have a competition to start at second base this year, and if Castillo had won the job, they'd really have to do it again next year. Castillo wasn't standing out in the competition for the job this year, and I know he had some issues, and it was right to cut him. In theory, whoever won this job (Brad Eamus) should be the guy long term. Let's see how he plays.

To me, it seemed like very quietly, both the bench and bullpen were overhauled. I knew changes were made, but I don't think I realized it until I got down to Port St. Lucie myself how many little and quiet changes were made. Time will tell if the bench is improved, and the same with the bullpen. I happen to think that both are better than they were last year. With no offense intended toward the players, I see the bench being stronger if those assigned to the bench are kept out of the starting lineup on a regular basis. What I mean by that is that if Daniel Murphy has to make a lot of starts at 1B or 2B, it hurts the club. If Willie Harris or Scott Hairston have to make a lot of starts in the outfield, it weakens the dynamic of the bench. Harris and Hairston both deserved to make the club, and they're part of what makes it a good bench. But when the bench is called on to fill holes too often, it spells trouble.

In the bullpen, well, the Mets overworked their bullpen for many many years, so it's only natural to say that an almost 100% overhaul will yield a better product. Competition for spots during Spring Training also didn't hurt - it showed that there is some actual talent in the bullpen. I should also mention the two new arms in the starting rotation, both of whom impressed me in some of the starts I witnessed in person while I was down in Florida. Chris Capuano has a great pickoff move, and Chris Young has an interesting hook to his delivery hiding the ball behind his back (something I noticed on about the first or second pitch I saw in my first game this year).

I should mention about the roster selections a few things. I think Nick Evans deserved to make the club, and maybe it should have been at the expense of Daniel Murphy, who seems to be a klutz in the field. I like the selection of Blaine Boyer over Manny Acosta and Jason Isringhausen, and I like that Izzy hasn't left the club (yet), but Boyer earned it. And I like Mike Nickeas as the backup catcher over Ronnie Paulino. Hopefully all of Paulino's health issues can be resolved quickly, and I realize there was a reason why he was signed, but I like Nickeas on the club a little better.

Now to 83 wins. Why that number? With all of the improvements I've spoken of, why not improve last season's win total even more? Well, in my curve of improvement in wins, (or, if you dare to think about it, going the other direction), there is a bit of a plateau around a .500 record. Going from 69 wins to 79 wins isn't the same as 79 wins to 89 wins because 89 wins is serious playoff contention, and that's quite an improvement for a club that was below .500 the year before. I don't think the Mets made that much of an improvement from 79 wins, but they are a plus-.500 club, so 83 it is.


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