Mets 2012 predictions

The new year 2012 is upon us, and I have a few predictions for the Mets for this year.

1. I will not win the Banner Day competition, but I will have lots of fun creating a banner and participating. And that's what it's all about.
2. The Sterling Equities partners will no longer control the New York Mets (by year's end). They will not get enough investors to loan them money in exchange for usage of Mr. Met and a Citi Field parking space (which I heard is actually only good when Citi Field's lot is used as a park-and-ride lot). They will have to pay more money than they can afford in Bernie Madoff-related lawsuits. And other owners in MLB will force Bud Selig's hand over the liquidity issues and loans from MLB that they'll basically kick Fred Wilpon out of the club. Sterling Equities real estate will also crumble over the weight of what Fred Wilpon will owe (remember, separate from the Mets, they made money from Madoff that will have to be given back).
3. The 2013 MLB All Star Game will not be awarded to Citi Field. Same with the 2014 game or the 2015 game. It won't be awarded until new ownership is firmly in place, though I expect to see it as something thrown into the pot for a new owner (sort of like how the Astros deal had a condition on them moving to the AL West).
4. The Mets will have a bad product on the field in 2012. It won't be fun to watch. And attendance will dip, again. That will cause the Mets to lose $100 million in 2012. It's kind of the opposite of "it takes money to make money".
5. The most attended event at Citi Field will be a concert and not a sporting event.
6. The NHL Winter Classic will not be at Citi Field in 2012 (or probably, ever). Reason - it's not Yankee Stadium. We just have to live with it.
7. David Wright will be traded before the trade deadline.
8. Johan Santana will be healthy enough to have trade talks centered around him during the season until a season ending injury (though it'll be something freak and mis-handled, and not related to any of the other injuries he's had with the Mets).
9. R.A. Dickey will be the Mets representative at the All Star Game
10. Howie Rose will be paired with Jim Duquette on WFAN. It should be fun to listen to.

Happy 2012 Mets fans! Mets 2012, rejuvenated at 50!


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The Wilpons Are Victims

I think I came to a realization today - the Madoff scheme did have an impact on the Mets operations. It gave the Mets owners the impression for many years that they had the money to first buy out Nelson Doubleday and then run the Mets. I think we're seeing that without those fake funds, they can't run the club.

In that way, Fred Wilpon, Saul Katz, Jeff Wilpon, and even the millions of Mets fans in the world are all victims. The Wilpons were victims of Bernie Madoff, but instead of losing their life savings or losing their charity fund, they're going to lose their ballclub.

Now, this doesn't impact how anyone should look at the Picard lawsuit. They should have to give back the money they "made" from Madoff. The problem is, they've invested it in the New York Mets, clawing from the, whatever it is, 5% they had in 1986 to the 99% of the club that they're cited as owning now. So they should have to give back sell off a portion of the club.

The problem is that the Wilpons aren't the ones coming out and saying this. Their names are getting dragged through the mud by the lawsuit and from all of the other dirt that the New York Times digs up and prints. Don't get me wrong, I don't like the current Mets owners, and I wish them enough harm to have to make them go away, and I'm not defending anything their lying asses have said or done. But they're victims. They're victims who still have money (well, I'm starting to wonder about that given how they're begging their Buddy Selig for cash after getting a loan, all since the end of last season).

With all that, the Wilpons have made some stupid decisions. Citi Field. Citi Field ticket prices. Obstructed views at Citi Field. Oliver Perez (wait, that was actually Omar Minaya). Omar Minaya (wait, he actually wasn't bad at first). The end of the 2007 season (wait, that was Willie Randolph's fault). The end of the 2008 season (wait, that was Jerry Manuel's fault). The 2009 season (ok, that was Omar's and the trainer's faults). The 2010 season (Jerry again). But the buck stops here.

Fred Wilpon needs to step up to the plate. I don't think he's going to admit that mistakes were made with Citi Field or with the past half decade, but he does need to man up and say that he lost a big source of revenue (at least on paper, being the profits from his million Madoff funds; and I mean "lost" in that he doesn't have these accounts any more giving him money), it's caused a lot of financial problems with the club (hence the loan last fall and the begging for more money now) and this is why he needs to sell of what really should be at least 60% of the ballclub. He needs to admit that if he has to pay back the money that he made of Madoff (the money he used to purchase in full and then run the Mets), then he would need to sell off the rest of the club (poetic justice). He needs to quit hiding around the fact that he's a victim and man up to both the truth and reality.

Otherwise we're all going to be vicitims of something.


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The Legacy of Fred Wilpon

I'm sure you've all heard the Mets' latest news conference and/or read the growing number of articles from newspapers that are painting a picture of the Mets latest woes. But let me recap in my own words...

Mets owner, Fred Wilpon, a longtime friend of swindler Bernard Madoff, has found that he needs some money to help keep the Mets running as a first class organization. It's been widely reported that a mega-buck lawsuit has been filed against Mr. Wilpon in relation to the money he made investing with his friend.

Let me go on record and state this - I think within a year, the Wilpon family will no longer control the New York Mets. I really do think this lawsuit, and other Madoff-related business will result in the Wilpons needing to sell at least 50% of the Mets ballclub, and maybe closer to 100% of it. I can almost see Fred Wilpon walking out of the ballpark in tears of shame over this (if he hasn't already - remember, Wilpon and Son have kept saying that the Madoff business doesn't impact the Mets business, and somehow, trying to sell about 25% of the club to raise cash is some sort of impact).

Fred Wilpon, for 31 years, has had an owership stake in the New York Mets, purchasing a 5% share, along with Doubleday publishing, in 1980 from Joan Payson's heirs. Fred Wilpon worked his way up to 50% in the fall of 1986 when Doubleday publishing was sold (in a move that wasn't supposed to change anything about Mets' operations, and Nelson Doubleday, as a person, became co-owner, instead of being an owner through his company). In 2002, Wilpon bought out Nelson Doubleday to gain full control of the club and installed his son in a high-level position.

In that time, the Mets have never been able to sustain winning for long periods of time, usually falling down to very low lows after coming oh so close.

I never liked Fred or Jeff Wilpon. I'm sure Fred Wilpon is a fine man, and I'm sure he's a good real estate person (where he has built up his fortune). But he was never a good baseball man. His son is even worse at it (at least Fred has skills outside of the Mets). But I never thought of either of them as crooks (well, stealing our money for that brick thing they call a ballpark for what they call a "team", but that's not at issue here). They probably aren't crooks, Fred was just associated with one. But it's going to cost them billions and a legacy.

The Madoff scandal's effect on the Mets is going to be much worse than originally thought. And the way the Mets have been run, and how they have played over the past few years is going to make things much much worse for Wilpon and Son.

It was asked in the press conference on Friday (which you can read here) what you can get for your millions of dollars for a non-controlling piece of the ballclub. Like most of the answers, they seemed to me like they were all non-answers (I'll excuse the ones where they couldn't answer because of pending legal matters).

So why would you want to spend that kind of money to get in bed with the Wilpons here? I think the answer is to be able to gain a larger stake in the club, maybe a controlling stake. Aside from that, I can't see any upside, especially in this economy. It was already stated that the Wilpons have tried to sell off part of the club to raise cash to no avail. Of course, this whole thing is about them seeking help, but I think it will be tough. The price will drive down, or in order to get the money they need, they have to sell off more. This is why I think this will eventually lead to the Wilpons no longer being in control of the Mets within a year. Remember, they continually denied (lied?) that Madoff would have any effect on the Mets ballclub, and here we are.

I see the Wilpons in a position to have to sell more of the club to get what they want. Maybe they know it. Maybe they're denying it. Maybe that have a plan.

Now let me ask this...would you rather see a brand-name come in with a smaller piece of the club (say 25%) and then this person comes in to bail out the Wilpons again buying another 25% (or more), or would you rather see a silent partner come in, basically with cash?


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