Thursday, August 5, 2010

The 4/6 Report - A .500 Season

I was thinking of what to write for the 4/6 Report (or 2/3 for those that don't know the math), so I decided to look back at first 3 1/6th of the season reports.

After 27 games, the Mets were 15-12, 1/2 game back.
After 54 games, the Mets were 27-27, 5 games back.
After 81 games, the Mets were 45-36, 3 games back.
And after 108 games, the Mets are 54-54, 7.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East and 8 games back in the Wild Card.

I was thinking how quickly they've fallen in the past 27 games since the half-way mark (3/6) when they were 9 games over .500 to where they are now at .500. But then I saw that 54 games ago, after 1/3 of the season (or 2/6), they were also .500. Just as much as they rose, the fell. Those last 54 games have been a bit of a roller coaster. These last 27 games have been the downward slope, with the Mets falling fast.

With various activities going on for me over the last 27 games, I can't say that I've seen much of this happen live. I was told that Carlos Beltran came back after the All-Star Break. I think that disrupted the rhythm of the lineup and outfield from what had been working well. Luis Castillo came back at some point, aging the lineup in front of our eyes. Jason Bay ran into a wall in Los Angeles (I think during a game), and getting on the airplane to come home, the injury became a concussion. OK, that helped balance things out in the outfield with Beltran and Pagan, although I think Pagan should be the CF over Beltran right now. Some of the "ace" starting pitchers have hit a wall.

But I think the team has lost focus. Jerry Manuel may be managing like he knows that he's a lame duck manager. Maybe that's not the case, and he's just bad at managing. But he's lost the players. And the players are starting to lose the fans. I joked when I came up with the moniker "DyHrdMET" in 1997 that I'm a die hard Mets fan, and I have died hard with the club over the years. Imagine what I've seen in 13 1/2 years since then. I see it again.

While I was in Florida for Spring Training back in March, I came up with the number 75 for my prediction for the number of Mets wins. For a while, I thought I was way off. I'm starting to wonder. I won't consider myself wrong until the Mets hit 80 wins or 90 losses. 21-33 over the last third of the season is probably too low for this club, but if they give up, you never know, but 26-28 isn't.

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