A Tough Series

Right now I'm a bit numb. A few minutes ago, the Mets blew an 8th inning lead in a game they had lead throughout that would have tied the World Series at 2 games apiece. Now, they're down 3-1 in the series and facing elimination at home in Game 5 tomorrow night. I'm going tomorrow night.

The Mets also blew Game 1 in the 9th inning and again in the 14th inning. They had that one in their grasp. Familia gave up a tying HR in the 9th, and Wright committed an error in the 14th leading to hits and the winning run for the Royals. They had at least a split in KC in their grasp and they blew it. The ending of that game, from the 9th inning on, goes on the list of Mets playoff failures.

Tonight, another bad loss on this list. Maybe this is enough to be a Greek tragedy. They held just enough of a lead until Terry Collins (somehow candidate for manager of the year) decided to go with his unreliable 8th inning guy for the 8th inning, and after back-to-back 1 out walks, decided it was time to pull him. Familia again (who should be the team MVP, and Game 1 was his first blown save since the turnaround started July 30) blows the save, this time, with an error by Murphy at 2B and then another hit through Murphy opens the door for a 3 run inning before Familia got a double play ball (to Murphy) to get out of the inning.

Now, there were other reasons why the Mets ultimate (and now expected) loss in this World Series is considered a failure. They had trouble hitting all season, and a better offense would have bailed them out in each of these cases. But it didn't. That's not quite the point of this post.

What scares me is that these 2 blown games absolutely have the potential of fitting into a franchise pattern that, in 2009, I called "A pattern of bad behavior" (revisited here after the 2009 season had ended. Basically to summarize, there were Mets teams in the playoffs, they failed on the playoffs, one or two moments in that final series was responsible for not only not winning the World Series that year, but having the franchise fall down and not be able to sustain the level of success that got them there. There was one exception to that, and that was 1999, because the team returned and moved upward in 2000. They just weren't the better team in 1999, and there wasn't a chance that they had and blew. It didn't hurt them then, and they did better the following year.

So the question, which probably can't be answered until at least next summer or September, is, where does the 2015 Mets fit in to this pattern?
Do they fit into this pattern, and the 2015 World Series becomes the chance that got away, with 2016 and beyond coming up short until most of these guys are long gone? Or do they break this pattern (or at least go against it) by returning next year (Any playoff appearance is still considered successful because in this narrative, they would basically fall apart because of these blown chances)?


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A new beginning

A while back, I wrote about a pattern of bad behavior in Mets history, where they were on the brink of true greatness, failed, and fell down so far that it took many years to recover, and then to do it again and again. In that piece, I wrote that they did that in 2006, in Game 7 against the Cardinals, pointing to the half inning after the Chavez catch, when they didn't get the clutch hit that would have put them ahead and probably would have put them in the World Series, as the point where they fell down. I think I see the light at the other end of that tunnel. I feel an optimism building around the 2015 Mets that makes me think that within two or three years, the Mets will be right back at that point.

I wrote after I returned from Spring Training that the Mets would be a .500 team (81-81). Even after losing Wheeler for the season, I stand by that prediction. 81 wins is an improvement, but it's not quite there. A little improvement here, and fixup there, and they can be a 90 win team and in the playoffs, maybe even destined for great things.

Happy (almost) Opening Day.
Let's Go Mets!


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Opinion revisited - A Pattern of Bad Behavior

I'm re-posting this opinion that I shared earlier this year. I wanted to get this out there for discussion before we get too far into the free agency period and Winter Meetings. I've also tweaked some of the wording after sleeping on it for a few months and discussing it with a few people in the meantime.

The Mets are in a bit of a tailspin, and I'm not surprised by it. This fits into a loose pattern, and I can only go by what I lived through as a fan starting with the 1987 season.

• After the Mets lost in the 1988 NLCS to the Dodgers, the team started to slide the next season. It was a series they should have won, and after it, things got really bad for a few seasons. It really wasn't until Bobby Valentine was hired as manager and Steve Phillips came in as GM before things turned around.
• After the Mets lost Game 1 of the 2000 World Series to the Yankees, the team started to slide the next season. They shouldn't have won the series, but they shouldn't have lost that first game either. They really really had a chance to win and let it get away. Then things got bad. It wasn't until Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph came in to save the franchise that things turned around.
• After the Mets lost Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS to the Cardinals, the team started to slide. We all remember the 7 game lead with 17 to play in 2007, and the bullpen collapse of 2008. 2009 was just the next paragraph in that story. 2010 probably will be too.

You can pinpoint moments in 1988 (Kirk Gibson in game 4 of the NLCS), 2000 (mental mistakes that I have partially blocked out of my consciousness in game 1 of the WS), and 2006 (not scoring after the Chavez catch in game 7 of the NLCS).

You can see the parallels and patterns - sliding from 1989 to the "world team money could buy" in 1992 and rebounding around 1995/1996; sliding from 2001 to the Art Howe era ending in 2004 and rebounding in 2005; sliding from September 2007 into 2008 and falling fast in 2009.

By comparison, Atlanta won their division every year from 1991-1993 and 1995-2005. They failed in the playoffs many times, got back up, and were right back the next year. The Phillies have been in 3 years in a row, built up from 2007 to 2008 to win it all. The Mets aren't in the same class as those teams are/were.

Now I know that the players weren't around for all of these slides. Most were only around for one. It's not necessarily them. It's the culture. What they built up with Frank Cashen was great (maybe he's a candidate for the Mets Hall of Fame). But once things started to get away from them, that was it. Even a broken clock it right twice a day. That probably best explains most of their success in the last 20 years.

Looking towards 2010 and the free agent market, I just don't see the Mets making a big move and spending the money, and even if they do, I don't see them being one player away from turning things around. They just weren't good in 2009 and showed a severe lack of depth. That can't be fixed by one player.

It ain't pretty. I can see why Fred & Jeff Wilpon want to ignore this history, but they're doomed to repeat it.

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