Monday, July 11, 2011

Predictions for the Second Half

Today, I look forward to the second "half" of the 2011 Mets season (of course, the All Star Game is the "half way mark" of a season even though it's about a week past the statistical half way point, but I digress)...

  1. The 2011 Mets, even with Jose Reyes coming back and going back to being his old self, even with David Wright and Ike Davis coming back in August, and even with Johan Santana coming back by the end of next month as well, do not make the playoffs. This team that's gone on a run since late April to finally break and stay over .500 is going to keep September exciting, we'll applaud them when they are eliminated by the Nationals at Citi Field on their great effort, the best we've seen in some 5 years in Flushing, but they aren't going to the playoffs. At least not under the current structure.
  2. I just mentioned that David Wright, Ike Davis, and Johan Santana will all come back during August. Wright probably early in the month (border-line July), Davis mid-month, and Santana late in the month. I think the team will suffer a lag when Wright comes back (what first baseman besides Ike Davis and Keith Hernandez can handle Wright's erratic throwing arm?) and go back below .500 for a bit. Ike Davis will breathe some life in the club and bring them back over when Davis hits one OVER the Shea Bridge. And Johan Santana finds his way back into the rotation very close to a time when the rosters could handle a 6-man rotation.
  3. Without consideration for the trade deadline, the current 2011 payroll-Mets will not reach the playoffs (that includes bringing back the DL'd players into the starting lineup). But they'll be so damn close that in a future year, it would be really hard to trade the All-Star Right Fielder (and comeback player of the club) and their flamethrowing closer. And in 2011 when those trades are made (thinking of the future of course), it will bring the team down a little bit. Under some managers, that could spell doom. Under Terry Collins, that will keep them a 2 or 3 games above .500. And after 2009 and 2010, finishing at .500 is an accomplishment.
Now I mention the trade deadline and future years because of a rumored expansion to the playoff structure as soon as next year that would bring more teams into the playoffs, and make more medicore teams think they're in playoff contention, and redefine what it means to be a buyer and what it means to be a seller at the trade deadline. Coming into the final game before the break, the Mets are 7.5 games out of the NL Wild Card. Add one more Wild Card team, the Mets are suddenly 2.5 games behind a 3-way tie (with 2 of those teams also being tied for a division lead). That certainly would change the direction a team may go at the trade deadline. I still stand by my prediction of 83 wins. Even with all that's coming back, and all that the Mets are going to send away, and with all that Terry Collins has done, they still finish the season playing golf in October feeling good about 83 wins. Leave a comment or drop me a line at DyHrdMET [at] gmail [dot] com. "Like" RememberingShea on Facebook (the function formerly known as "Becoming a Fan"). Become a Networked Blog